Lots of potential potholes in Ottawa real estate for 2016
Like it or not, our local economy is dominated by Federal
government activity and there are a lot of potential potholes we may face as
the new government sets out to try and keep all the promises it has made.
Will Liberal history repeat itself?
Trudeau Sr. decimated the oil patch with his disastrous National Energy Program
in the early 1980’s. Will Trudeau Jr.
further “pile on” the oil industries, wreaking further economic damage- to live
up to his “carbon tax” mantra?
Chretien Liberals gutted the public service in the ‘90’s:
Jean Chretien and Paul Martin took about 25,000 to 30,000 jobs out of the
Ottawa public service in the early to mid 1990’’s and on top of a general
recession, we had the worst decade in real estate in 50 years. Let’s hope the Government doesn’t have to
resort to those draconian measures to try and get re-elected in 4 year’s time
and pay out on all their promises.
Wither the military…
“ More teeth and less tail”, “peacekeeping and training”. These seem to be some buzz words about the
place of the military in this government.
The Chretien Liberals also decimated the military in the 1990’s in what
insiders call “ the decade of darkness”.
Does the ideological bent of this government mean fewer personnel in the
military and fewer personnel deployments?
If so, that does not auger well for our market, as the spring and summer
season is bolstered by approx. 1,000 military moves in to Ottawa and 1,000
moving out of Ottawa.
Equity:
The previous Conservative government, though clearly not too popular with the
public service, was pretty good to Ottawa employment levels. Things were quite centralized and though
there was some belt tightening over the last 3 years with fewer Federal
workers, the early years of the Harper government saw Ottawa federal headcount
expand fairly significantly.
Any further headcount reductions in Ottawa or movement of departments or
functions out of Ottawa, naturally would have a negative impact on our local
economy.
Will idealism and realism both be present in the budget?
Our one Ottawa cabinet representative and climate change leader is often quoted
as saying: “ we have to make some tough decisions”. This raises a few scary thoughts about what
this might mean. Let’s hope there is at
least a dose of realism blended in with the idealism that is surely behind this
quote.
Will lower priced and medium priced housing continue to
dominate sales in 2016?
Throughout 2015 we saw a higher proportion of sales transactions in the
$300-$400K range and the $200-$300K range than usual. This could make selling the $500K+ home more
difficult, as it did last year.
Is our listing inventory issue solved? Or simply hibernating?
We carried a lot of excess listing inventory in 2015 and had as much as 30%
more residential listings and 70% more condo listings than 5 or 10 year
averages. This meant a buyer’s market
for most of the year, although inventories did diminish in the 4th
quarter. It remains to be seen if these
sellers no longer plan to sell or whether they are just awaiting the spring
market.
So there are a lot of issues to keep an eye on, as well as
having your existing property in tip top shape and ready to sell. Your Realtor can help you get a realistic
grasp on all market conditions and how best to optimize the marketing of your
property and the purchase of another. If
you do not have a Realtor and wish to take advantage of our expert buyer
representation or listings services, by all means send us a note oasisrealty@rogers.com and we can help you start your planning
today!
Gord McCormick, Broker of Record
Dawn Davey, Broker
www.oasisrealtyottawa.com
613-435-4692
Experienced, professional brokers with lower fees for sellers!