Lots of potential potholes in Ottawa real estate for 2016

Published 07 February 16 02:46 PM | Gord McCormick 

Like it or not, our local economy is dominated by Federal government activity and there are a lot of potential potholes we may face as the new government sets out to try and keep all the promises it has made.

Will Liberal history repeat itself?
Trudeau Sr. decimated the oil patch with his disastrous National Energy Program in the early 1980’s.  Will Trudeau Jr. further “pile on” the oil industries, wreaking further economic damage- to live up to his “carbon tax” mantra?

Chretien Liberals gutted the public service in the ‘90’s:
Jean Chretien and Paul Martin took about 25,000 to 30,000 jobs out of the Ottawa public service in the early to mid 1990’’s and on top of a general recession, we had the worst decade in real estate in 50 years.  Let’s hope the Government doesn’t have to resort to those draconian measures to try and get re-elected in 4 year’s time and pay out on all their promises.

Wither the military…
“ More teeth and less tail”, “peacekeeping and training”.  These seem to be some buzz words about the place of the military in this government.  The Chretien Liberals also decimated the military in the 1990’s in what insiders call “ the decade of darkness”.  Does the ideological bent of this government mean fewer personnel in the military and fewer personnel deployments?  If so, that does not auger well for our market, as the spring and summer season is bolstered by approx. 1,000 military moves in to Ottawa and 1,000 moving out of Ottawa.

The previous Conservative government, though clearly not too popular with the public service, was pretty good to Ottawa employment levels.  Things were quite centralized and though there was some belt tightening over the last 3 years with fewer Federal workers, the early years of the Harper government saw Ottawa federal headcount expand fairly significantly.
Any further headcount reductions in Ottawa or movement of departments or functions out of Ottawa, naturally would have a negative impact on our local economy.

Will idealism and realism both be present in the budget?
Our one Ottawa cabinet representative and climate change leader is often quoted as saying: “ we have to make some tough decisions”.  This raises a few scary thoughts about what this might mean.  Let’s hope there is at least a dose of realism blended in with the idealism that is surely behind this quote.

Will lower priced and medium priced housing continue to dominate sales in 2016?
Throughout 2015 we saw a higher proportion of sales transactions in the $300-$400K range and the $200-$300K range than usual.  This could make selling the $500K+ home more difficult, as it did last year.

Is our listing inventory issue solved?  Or simply hibernating?
We carried a lot of excess listing inventory in 2015 and had as much as 30% more residential listings and 70% more condo listings than 5 or 10 year averages.  This meant a buyer’s market for most of the year, although inventories did diminish in the 4th quarter.  It remains to be seen if these sellers no longer plan to sell or whether they are just awaiting the spring market.

So there are a lot of issues to keep an eye on, as well as having your existing property in tip top shape and ready to sell.  Your Realtor can help you get a realistic grasp on all market conditions and how best to optimize the marketing of your property and the purchase of another.  If you do not have a Realtor and wish to take advantage of our expert buyer representation or listings services, by all means send us a note oasisrealty@rogers.com  and we can help you start your planning today!


Gord McCormick, Broker of Record
Dawn Davey, Broker

 Experienced, professional brokers with lower fees for sellers!

Comment Notification

Subscribe to this post's comments using RSS


No Comments

Leave a Comment


This Blog